Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 8.051988e-05 0.000096 0.000112 0.000131 0.000152 0.000174 0.000200
2025-02-09 5.817895e-05 0.000078 0.000101 0.000129 0.000162 0.000200 0.000244
2025-02-16 5.002951e-05 0.000072 0.000100 0.000134 0.000176 0.000224 0.000284
2025-02-23 4.130292e-05 0.000065 0.000095 0.000135 0.000185 0.000244 0.000319
2025-03-02 3.270117e-05 0.000056 0.000087 0.000130 0.000185 0.000252 0.000338
2025-03-09 2.603654e-05 0.000049 0.000081 0.000126 0.000186 0.000261 0.000359
2025-03-16 2.172812e-05 0.000044 0.000077 0.000125 0.000190 0.000273 0.000383
2025-03-23 1.851709e-05 0.000041 0.000074 0.000126 0.000197 0.000288 0.000411
2025-03-30 1.540359e-05 0.000037 0.000071 0.000124 0.000200 0.000299 0.000433
2025-04-06 1.232129e-05 0.000033 0.000066 0.000121 0.000200 0.000305 0.000450
2025-04-13 1.036556e-05 0.000030 0.000064 0.000121 0.000204 0.000317 0.000474
2025-04-20 7.839840e-06 0.000026 0.000059 0.000115 0.000201 0.000318 0.000483
2025-04-27 6.468875e-06 0.000024 0.000057 0.000117 0.000208 0.000336 0.000517
2025-05-04 4.986223e-06 0.000021 0.000055 0.000116 0.000213 0.000349 0.000546
2025-05-11 4.304223e-06 0.000020 0.000055 0.000120 0.000224 0.000372 0.000587
2025-05-18 3.465467e-06 0.000019 0.000054 0.000121 0.000231 0.000390 0.000621
2025-05-25 2.329605e-06 0.000016 0.000049 0.000116 0.000228 0.000392 0.000635
2025-06-01 1.563080e-06 0.000013 0.000045 0.000112 0.000227 0.000398 0.000653
2025-06-08 1.110802e-06 0.000012 0.000043 0.000111 0.000230 0.000409 0.000679
2025-06-15 8.169829e-07 0.000011 0.000042 0.000112 0.000236 0.000424 0.000710
2025-06-22 5.398172e-07 0.000010 0.000040 0.000111 0.000239 0.000435 0.000735
2025-06-29 3.028885e-07 0.000008 0.000038 0.000108 0.000238 0.000440 0.000752
2025-07-06 1.861993e-07 0.000007 0.000036 0.000108 0.000242 0.000452 0.000780